Sam Harris thinks AI is coming for our jobs. Sam Altman says the work it replaces wasn’t “real work” anyway. Microsoft’s AI boss says every white-collar job is gone in eighteen months. The elite consensus has converged, and it’s wrong on both ends. METR’s randomized controlled trial found experienced developers were slower with AI tools while believing they’d been faster. Apple researchers tested frontier reasoning models on scalable puzzles and watched performance collapse to zero at high complexity—not degrade, collapse. Meanwhile UK tech graduate roles fell 46% in 2024 and US junior software postings are down 67%. The end-of-work crowd is staring at the wrong horizon.